Horror of Water Wars

The Brahmaputra feud with China is but a small challenge.

Whisky is for drinking, water is for fighting over. Mark Twain once said. At the start of the 21st centurv his gloonw view on the water side of the equation has been getting endorsements from an impressive—if unlikely—cast of characters. The CIA, Pricewaterhouse Coopers and, Britain's Ministry of Defence have all raised the spectre of fu'ure 'wa'er wars.'
With water availability shrinking across the West Asia, Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, so the arguments runs, violent conflict between states is increasingly likely The spectre is also on the agenda for the experts from 140 countries gathered at the annual World Water Week forum in Stockholm.
The Key Queition
The ghost of Mark Twain is in Stockholm as we reflect on the links between water scarcity and violent conflict between states. So, here's the question. Are we heading for an era of "hydrological warfare" in which rivers, lakes and aquifers become national security assets to be fought over, or controlled through proxy armies and clients states? Or can water act as a force for peace and cooperation." Observing recent events, it is difficult to avoid joining the ranks of pessimists who see water wars not as a future threat, but a living reality. Take the recent conflict in Lebanon. Beyond the unfolding horror captured on our television
screens one event went almost unnoticed. The destruction by Isreli bombs of irrigation canals supplying water from the Litani River to farmland along the coastal plain threatens thousands of Hvehoods.
In Sri Lanka, the refusal of Tamil Tiger rebels to open a sluice gate for canals that supplv water to rice farmers sparked a full-scale military assault that claimed the lives of 17 aid workers. Water conflicts are invariably shaped by local factors. But the sheer scale of these conflicts makes it impossible to dismiss them as isolated events. What we are dealing with is a global crisis generated by decades of gross mismanagement of water resources.
The facts behind the crisis tell their own storv. By 2025, more than two billion people are expected to live in countries that find it difficult or impossible in mobilise the water resources needed to meet the needs of agriculture, industry and households. Population growth, urbanization and the rapid development of manufacturing industries are relentlesslv increasing demand for finite water resources. Symptoms of the resulting water stress are increasingly visible.
Going down, down . . .
In northern China, rivers now run dry in their lower reaches for much of the year. In parts of India, groundwater levels are falling so rapidlv that from 10 to 20 per cent of agri production is under threat. Lakes are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. In effect, a large section of humanitv is now living in regions where the limits of sustainable water use have been breached—and where water-based ecological svstems are collapsing. The disputes erupting within countries are one consequence of increasing scarcity.
But water is the ultimate fugitive resource. Two in every five people in the world live in river and lake basins that span one or more international borders.
River Diversion Plans
Consider the huge river-diversion programmes under consideration in China and India, which see them as part of national strategy for transferring water from surplus to deficit areas. Neighbouring governments fear a catastrophic loss of water.
Bangladesh has warned that any diversion of the Ganges to meet the needs of India's cities would undermine the livelihoods of millions of vulnerable farmers. Identifying potential flashpoints for conflict does not require a doctorate in hvdrology. In West Asia, the world's most severely water-stressed region, more than 90 percent of usable water crosses international borders. As a single human community sharing a single planet we need to look beyond our national borders to work out ways of sustaining the ecological svstems on which human progress depends.